Review of California Blueprint for a Safer Economy for Moving to Lower Risk Tiers

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As mentioned in a previous post, the state of California has implemented a four-tier system for counties to move towards loosening restrictions on activities. The four tiers are shown in the image below.

Every county in California is assigned to a tier based on its test positivity and adjusted case rate. At a minimum, counties must remain in a tier for at least 3 weeks before moving forward. Data is reviewed weekly and tiers are updated on Tuesdays. To move forward, a county must meet the next tier’s criteria for two consecutive weeks. If a county’s metrics worsen for two consecutive weeks, it will be assigned a more restrictive tier.

Put a different way, a county will stay in each tier for 5 weeks at a minimum to move into a less restrictive tier.

As of Tuesday, September 22, 2020:

  • The state overall is at 6.4 new cases per day per 100K (over a 7-day average) and a 3.6% positivity rate (percentage of positive tests over a 7-day average).

  • Ventura County is at 7.4 new cases (unadjusted) per day per 100K and a 3.8% positivity rate. The positivity rate falls into the “moderate” (orange) category but the cases per day rate is in the “widespread” (purple) category.

Ventura County has a population of 856,287. Our current case rate of 7.4 new cases per 100K over a 7-day average equates to about 63 new cases on average per day, or over 440 cases in a week.

To get to “normal” again, there needs to be less than 1 new case per day per 100,000 people. That means we must average, on a rolling 7-day average, less than 8.5 new cases per day, or 60 new cases per week, for at least 5 weeks.

Looking at the historical statistics going back to the beginning of the pandemic, that puts us back at levels of new cases seen back in April 2020.

Updates on where Ventura County stands is at www.venturacountyrecovers.org in detail and at covid19.ca.gov/safer-economy at a summary level.